“Here Goes Nothing #5”
By now you all should know the drill. “Here Goes Nothing #5.” Super Bowl 54. Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers. February 2, 2020 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
I’ll start with the 49ers offense. The 49ers have had one of the strongest offenses among all teams in the NFL this season, with the 2nd most points for of all 32 teams. At quarterback is Jimmy Garoppolo. “Jimmy Jesus” has been great this year, completing 69 percent of his passes for 3978 yards and 27 touchdowns, only throwing 13 interceptions. One of the bigger issues with this unit that I’m noticing when looking at the stats, is the offensive line. The offense line is not bad by any means, it is just the weakest link in an otherwise stellar offense. Jimmy G has been sacked 36 times this year, which is 7 percent of the passing plays they ran. This translates to him being taken down about once every 14 drop-backs. These are not bad numbers, but they can get even better. The running game has been great this year, with a five headed monster in the backfield with Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Kyle Juszczyk. The number one back is Raheem Mostert, who even though he has started 0 games this season, has racked up 952 total yards from scrimmage, with 10 total touchdowns and only 2 fumbles. He has been a monster in the playoffs so far with an unbelievable 4 touchdown performance against Green Bay in the NFC title match. Then there is Tevin Coleman, who has 724 total yards from scrimmage this year with 7 touchdowns and 0 fumbles. He dislocated his shoulder in the NFC championship, but could possibly play in the Super Bowl if he heals well. The next is Matt Breida, who even though he was hurt for a good portion of the year, put up 743 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 fumbles to go along with it. Then there’s Jeff Wilson, who even though he is the FOURTH STRING running back, he has picked up 139 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He also has not fumbled the ball once. Last but not least is Kyle Juszczyk. Juszczyk has picked up 246 yards and a touchdown as the team’s starting fullback. He is also a very strong blocker, which makes him strong in many facets. I expect Kansas City’s defensive line to pose a challenge for this group, but they will still be able to produce. Then there’s the receiving on this team. They only have one of their top receivers on the injured reserve, as Marquise Goodwin was lost early in the year. This has not slowed them down at all though. I will start with George Kittle, who even though he did not produce as much as expected against the Packers, he is still a 1st team all pro tight end and is in the Pro Bowl. He leads the team in receiving yards, has the most receptions by a landslide, and is tied for the most touchdowns. He has hauled in 85 passes for 1053 yards this year with 5 touchdowns. The biggest thing he is doing however, is his 80% catch rate with an average of 12.4 yards per catch. That allows this team to get first downs consistently and easily, as on 8 out of 10 passes thrown to him, Kittle catches a first down. This team is loaded with receivers, ranging from veteran Emmanuel Sanders who was acquired early in the year from the Broncos, to rookie threat Deebo Samuel. Apart from those two, they have Kendrick Bourne, Dante Pettis, and Richie James. The fact that they have so many capable receivers, allows them to give their players rest when they need it, so they can stay energized when they are in. Deebo Samuel has had a stellar rookie campaign, catching 57 balls for 802 yards and 3 touchdowns, and has become a prominent deep threat for this team and is very strong in the Jet Sweep as he is by far the fastest receiver on the roster. Emmanuel Sanders, who was picked up mid year, has grabbed 36 catches for 502 yards and 3 touchdowns, and has become the veteran in the core that the team needed. Kendrick Bourne has caught the ball 30 times for 358 yards but sits with George Kittle with the most receiving touchdowns on the team with 5. Richie James and Dante Pettis do not play as much, but come in on occasion and can make an impact when they are asked to. The 49ers offense is one of the strongest in the game and I believe they will put up big numbers in the Super Bowl, with the passing game being the most prominent as the Chiefs secondary is the weakest part of their defense. The running game will be consistent and powerful enough to be a serious threat, but the Chief’s front seven will pose a tough opponent for them. If they can be smart with the ball and take advantage of the opposing defense when they have the ability to, they will do their job just fine.
Now onto the other offense, the Kansas City Chiefs. Led by offensive genius’ Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy, this offense is also one of the most impressive in the league, as they rank 5th of all 32 teams in points for this season. However, this offense is far more punishing and explosive than the teams above them. At quarterback is possible future hall of famer Patrick Mahomes. In my opinion, he is easily the best QB in the league right now. He has completed 65.9% of his passes for 4031 yards and 26 touchdowns this year, and has only thrown 5 interceptions. He has also picked up 218 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, and has fumbled the ball 3 times. Keep in mind he has done this all while sitting out two games with an injury. The offensive line has also done well this season, as Mahomes is only sacked on 3.4% of his drop backs this season. He also is one of the strongest scramblers in the game right now which helps to keep this number low. The crazy numbers Mahomes has put up this season can also be attributed to the utter strength of his receiving core. At receiver, a barrage of pure talent and speed in Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, and Demarcus Robinson. Tyreek Hill found his way into the Pro Bowl alongside his quarterback this season, but considering the numbers he has put up in only the 12 games he played in, this comes as no surprise He has caught 58 of 89 passes for 860 yards and 7 touchdowns, which is absolutely incredible. The chemistry between Mahomes and Hill is something that I’m willing to compare to the likes of Brady and Edelman. Next up is Mecole Hardman, an absolute speed demon putting up great numbers in his rookie year. He has caught 26 balls, only 26, but has still found his way to 538 yards and 6 touchdowns. Not to mention he holds the record for the longest catch this season by a Chief at 83 yards. Next up on the list of raw talent, Sammy Watkins. After failing to mesh with both the Bills and the Rams since his entrance into the league, he now finds himself on a Chiefs team that takes full advantage of his ability as a receiver. He has grabbed 52 of his 90 targets for 673 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has revived his career with Kansas City and I believe his production will stay largely the same in the Super Bowl. Finally, the fourth main receiver on this roster is Demarcus Robinson. He has managed to still get 32 catches for 449 yards and 4 touchdowns, even with all the options in this receiving core. They also have this tight end, you might know him, yeah, I’m talking about none other than Travis Kelce. I cannot wait to see the tight end battle take place this year between Kittle and Kelce, who both made the Pro Bowl this year with ease. Kelce has 97 passes en route to a mind boggling 1229 yards and 5 touchdowns. He catches 71.3% of the passes thrown to him and averages 12.7 yards per catch. The first down line is 10 yards away or less most of the time, barring sacks and other losses of yards. Just like his opponent in George Kittle, he is great at moving the chains. If he has another game like he typically does, San Francisco could be in serious trouble. The running game hasn’t been anything special this year, but it hasn’t really had to be with the pure power of the team’s passing attack. Damien Williams leads the rushing attack, with help from LeSean McCoy. Williams has rushed 111 times for 498 yards and 5 touchdowns, with his longest run coming in at a crazy 91 yards. He has also picked up 213 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, putting him at 711 total yards, and 7 total touchdowns, while only fumbling the ball one time all year. The listed backup is LeSean McCoy, who has 646 total yards from scrimmage this year, and 5 total touchdowns. This gives them a two pronged attack that has produced enough to make a solid impact this season. I trust them to do their part, even against that stingy 49ers D-Line. The Chiefs offense has proven all season that they are capable of putting up big numbers, even against the best of defenses. Andy Reid has always been an offensive genius, and is looking for redemption from his last super bowl appearance where he lost to the Patriots as the head coach of the Eagles in 2005. The 49ers defense is great we know this, but the Chiefs offense is the equivalent of a freight train on a football field, running over everything in its path. This offense will be the main factor in how the Chiefs perform. With that being said, I trust them to do their thing and put up big numbers when it matters most. Now onto the defenses and the special teams units.
The 49ers defense. They’re easily one of the best in the league in my opinion, possibly even the best, even though they are 8th in points against. That stat however, is being weighed down by one or two bad games. For example, their week 14 matchup against the Saints, where they gave up 46 points to Drew Brees and company (They still won that game by the way). Their defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is almost certainly the best in the league at his job, and has put together a unit that scares even the best offenses. Their linebacker core consists of Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Kwon Alexander. Fred Warner has a total of 118 tackles this year, 3 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, 1 interception and a touchdown to go with all that I think it’s safe to say he’s pretty good. Next is Dre Greenlaw, who also has 1 interception, and has gotten 1 sack to go with his 87 tackles this year. He is a strong compliment to Warner. Another strong compliment to Warner is Kwon Alexander. In the 8 games he played this year, he picked up 1 interception and 1 forced fumble, with 34 tackles. This linebacker unit should be able to put pressure on Mahomes and be able to help defend against the pass attack that the Chiefs possess. The D-line is made up of powerhouses that include but are not limited to big names like rookie Nick Bosa, Veteran Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead. The biggest name this season is Nick Bosa, the rookie defensive end out of Ohio State, who has quickly become one of the best in the league. He made the Pro Bowl this year, but is obviously not able to go as he has a Super Bowl to prepare for. Bosa has 47 tackles this year, to go with his 1 forced fumble and 1 interception. The biggest number is the 9 sacks that he has on the year, barely second on the team to fellow Lineman Arik Armstead. Speaking of Armstead, he had 54 tackles this year and grabbed 10 sacks. He was also able to force 2 fumbles this season. Then Dee Ford, who although his tackle number is underwhelming at 14, he has sacked opposing quarterbacks 6.5 times this season in the 11 games he was a part of. He also matched Armstead with 2 forced fumbles. His major impact was as a leader. This was his 7th year in the league, so he was able to provide guidance for the younger players on the roster. Finishing out the core of this line is DeForest Buckner, who racked up 61 tackles this season, leading all lineman. 7.5 of those tackles were sacks, putting him third on the team in that category. To add to those stats, he has also forced 2 fumbles this season. This monster defensive will need to put lots of pressure on Mahomes in order to force him to scramble and make quick decisions. The secondary is the weakest part of this defense, and that’s saying something, considering they’re still one of the best in the entire league. Led by veteran corner Richard Sherman who is experiencing a revival of sorts, posting big numbers this season. The biggest contributors around him are cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams, with help from others such as Ahkello Witherspoon. I guess I’ll start with Sherman, who has a team high 3 interceptions, he also has 61 tackles and a touchdown to go with 11 successfully defended passes. Emmanuel Moseley has 43 tackles, 8 defended passes, and 1 pick. Although these are small numbers compared to Sherman, you have to account for the fact that he does not typically guard the number 1 receiver on the opposing team, as that is Sherman’s job. K’Waun Williams is having a strong year as well, with 51 tackles, 2 interceptions, and a team high 4 forced fumbles. Then there are the safeties. Led by Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt, they have performed well this year. Although Jimmie Ward has not forced any turnovers this season, he has collected 60 tackles, which is a solid number. Tartt has managed to force a single fumble this year, but also had 44 tackles. To be honest, this safety unit is a little underwhelming in my opinion. However, I credit that mostly to the incredible play by the cornerbacks this season, there has not been a lot of need for help in coverage. This secondary will have to show up in order to contain the Chief’s crazy speed and explosiveness. Well there’s that, the 49ers defense. As I said, they are, in my opinion, the best defense in the league this year. If anyone has the ability to stop the high flying Chief’s offense, it’s this unit. Also, if the Niners win, I believe there is a strong chance that the MVP will be one of the defensive players listed above.
As for the special teams, kicker Robbie Gould has been consistent this year, making 74.2% of his field goals and knocking through 97.6% of his extra point attempts. If called on to make a big field goal, it is worth noting that he has missed all four attempts from past 50 yards. Mitch Wishnowsky is a good punter and is also responsible for kickoffs this year. He averages 63.6 yards on his kickoffs and 44.9 on his punts. Nothing crazy, but they’ve played well enough.
Now to the other defense, the Kansas City Chiefs. This has been an interesting group this season. They cannot seem to decide whether they want to be atrociously awful, just decent, or utterly incredible. However, as of late, they seem to be sitting in between decent and incredible, which bodes well for them considering they have the biggest game of most of their careers in a week. They actually sit above the 49ers in points against, at 7th on the season. So again, I’ll start with the linebackers. Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens have been fairly consistent this season. Hitchens with 88 tackles and 2 sacks, and Wilson not far behind with 81 tackles and 1.5 sacks. They each have forced a fumble a piece, and although they are not the best linebacker duo in the league, they have obviously been more than good enough as the Chiefs found their way to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1970. The Chief’s defensive line has been solid this year, with a strong core consisting of pro bowlers Frank Clark and Chris Jones, and others such as Derrick Nnadi and Emmanuel Ogbah. This is obviously not everyone, but these are the biggest names in my opinion. I have to start with Frank Clark, a human machine in his 6th NFL season. He leads the team in forced fumbles with a total of 3. That’s not all though, he has also snagged 37 tackles, 8 sacks, and an interception on the season, earning him the title as one of the best in the league at what he does. Then Chris Jones, another beast in his 5th year. He had 36 tackles this year and 1 forced fumble to go with his team leading 9 quarterback sacks. Next to those two pro bowlers are lesser known names. Derrick Nnadi is the only defensive end on this roster to start all 16 games this season. He found his way to 48 tackles with 1 sack, with 1 forced fumble and a single interception as well. Finally, there is Emmanuel Ogbah. Ogbah has only played in 10 games this season, but has still managed to get 32 tackles, with 5.5 sacks and a forced fumble. This group held Derrick “The King” Henry, to under 100 yards in their win in the AFC championship. They will have to have another game like that when facing the Niners running attack, which has proven that they can punish poor performances. The secondary has been the more on and off part of this defense, but even when they are off they can still normally find a way to win. However, I will say that they have been on recently. At cornerback, they are led by Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland, but they will occasionally have safeties line up against receivers. Ward has been big this season, with 74 tackles to add to his 2 interceptions and 1 forced fumble. Breeland has been nothing short of consistent this season, playing in every game, and hauling in 2 interceptions, and although he didn’t force any fumbles, he did recover 2 and he returned 1 of them for a touchdown. As far as tackles go, he had 48 of them this year. The safeties are arguably the best part of this defense, with names such as Tyrann Mathieu, who has finally found his place in KC, Juan Thornhill, and Daniel Sorensen. These three have been a huge part in the Chief’s success this season. Mathiue, who struggled to find his place in Arizona and Houston, has been terrific in Kansas City, putting up some of the best numbers of his career. In his 8th season as an NFL safety, he leads the team in interceptions with 4, is third in tackles with 75, is first on the team in successfully defended passes, has picked up 2 sacks this year, and has played in every single game so far this year. I’ll just leave you with that. Next is Juan Thornhill, who has also played in all 16 games this year, collected 57 tackles this year, to go with 3 interceptions, 1 of which was a pick six. Then you have Daniel Sorensen, who has ALSO played in all 16 games this year (if you’ve haven’t caught on, these three staying healthy has had a profound impact on the team’s performance). He has picked up 2 interceptions and 52 tackles in route to a solid season. That’s the Chief’s defense for ya, a solid unit with lots of potential that just needs to be seized. They will need to play at the top of their ability in order to contain Garoppolo and crew, and they most definitely have what it takes to do it. It’s all going to come down to how strong they play on gameday.
The Chief’s special teams has been great this year, as they actually have Harrison Butker, who I think is a top 3 kicker in the league. He has made 89.5% of his field goals this year, and puts in 93.8% of his extra point attempts. If Butker is called on to make a kick in the clutch, I have good trust in him from practically any distance, as he has knocked through 3 of his 6 attempts from 50 yards or more. It’s worth noting that he is perfect from 40-49 yards and 20-29 yards, and has gone 9 for 10 from 30-39 yards out. He is responsible for kickoffs as well, averaging 62.8 yards per kick with 61.2% of his kickoffs leading to touchbacks. Punter Dustin Colquitt is also among the best at his position, and averages 44.3 yards per punt with his long coming in at 68 yards.
Now, the part of this that everyone who read this has been waiting for, and the part that most people likely skipped to. My prediction. I do not have a good record in title games, as the only one I’ve gotten right was the most recent World Series so I’m just hoping that I can keep that mojo going for this game also. However, regardless of my history with title games, here goes. I think this game is big for both coaches in particular. Andy Reid is looking for redemption from his last super bowl where he lost to the Patriots, and Kyle Shanahan is looking for redemption from the part he played in the Falcons’ 28-3 incident, where they also lost to the Patriots. These two coaches are going to do everything they need to in order to win. The two quarterbacks are also big here, as Mahomes is looking to prove he is the best in the game at the position, after winning MVP last year. Garoppolo is looking to prove that he is a franchise quarterback after sitting behind Brady for years as a backup for the Patriots. Both teams are very young and lots of players are looking for their first Super Bowl, and both teams are looking to build a dynasty and keep momentum for years to come. The Chiefs are 1 point favorites, but the 49ers have a higher points per game and a lower points allowed per game. The Chiefs have more passing yards per game by a lot, but the 49ers have more rushing yards per game by a good chunk. And on the defensive side, the 49ers defense is significantly better against the pass and the run. So after looking at all this, I am going to pick the San Francisco 49ers. I trust the defense to contain the offense to perform. Please don’t mess this up Kyle Shanahan. Have at it boys.
Source for all Kansas City Chiefs Statistics
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/2019.htm
Source for all San Francisco 49ers Statistics
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2019.htm
Source for Team Comparison
Amateur Sports Network 